NOAA forecasters are predicting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year, citing the expected development of El Niño conditions that could suppress storm activity.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, has a 55% chance of being below normal, a 35% chance of being near normal and only a 10% chance of being above normal, according to NOAA’s National Weather Service. The outlook calls for 8 to 14 named storms, including 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.
An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. NOAA said it has 70% confidence in its forecast ranges.
Federal officials said advances in forecasting technology and storm tracking are expected to improve warnings and preparedness efforts ahead of the season.
“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in a statement.
NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said the agency is using AI-based weather models, drones and next-generation satellite data to improve forecast accuracy.
Forecasters said the outlook reflects competing climate conditions. El Niño, which typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity, is expected to develop and intensify during the season. At the same time, Atlantic Ocean temperatures are forecast to remain slightly above normal, while weaker trade winds could support storm formation.
National Weather Service Director Ken Graham urged residents in hurricane-prone areas to prepare despite the lower forecast.
“It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season,” Graham said.
NOAA also announced several new forecasting and communication tools for 2026, including expanded inland tropical storm and hurricane warning graphics, new storm-surge products for Hawaii, and experimental forecasting systems that use machine learning and uncrewed aircraft data to improve hurricane-intensity predictions.
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